GSK makes a strong start to 2024 with improving outlook for the year

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Algemeen advies 01/05/2024 11:06
2024 Guidance
GSK provides its full-year guidance at constant exchange rates (CER). All expectations and full-year growth rates
exclude any contributions from COVID-19 solutions.
GSK has started 2024 strongly, with business momentum across all product areas, particularly in Vaccines and
Specialty Medicines, including sales contributions from newly launched vaccines and medicines Arexvy and Ojjaara
respectively. General Medicines, particularly Trelegy, also performed better than expected. Along with a favourable
product mix, GSK benefitted in the quarter from a successful Zejula royalty dispute appeal, and we also expect royalty
income to be slightly higher for the full year. As a result, GSK has upgraded its full-year 2024 guidance.
All Guidance excludes the contributions
of COVID-19 solutions
Current 2024 guidance at CER Previous 2024 guidance at CER
Turnover Increase towards the upper part of the
range of between 5% to 7%
Increase between 5% to 7%
Core operating profit Increase between 9% to 11% Increase between 7% to 10%
Core earnings per share Increase between 8% to 10% Increase between 6% to 9%
GSK expects first half 2024 sales growth to be higher than second half 2024 due to the comparator to H2 2023, which
benefitted from newly launched vaccines and medicines. In particular, second half 2024, compared to the same period
in the prior year, is expected to be influenced by the 2023 launch dynamics and initial channel inventory build
attributable to Arexvy. In addition, we expect the majority of Shingrix sales in China in to be in the first half 2024.
This guidance continues to be supported by the following turnover expectations for full-year 2024 at CER:
All turnover expectations exclude the contributions
of COVID-19 solutions
No change to current 2024 expectations at CER
Vaccines Increase of high single-digit to low double-digit per cent in turnover
Specialty Medicines Increase of low double-digit per cent in turnover
General Medicines Decrease of mid-single-digit per cent in turnover
Core Operating profit is expected to grow between 9 to 11 per cent at CER (previously 7 to 10 per cent increase),
despite a 6 percentage point impact to Operating Profit growth following the loss of the majority of Gardasil royalties
effective from the beginning of 2024. GSK continues to expect to deliver leverage at a gross margin level due to
improved product mix from Vaccines and Specialty Medicines growth and continued operational efficiencies. In
addition, GSK continues to anticipate further leverage in Operating Profit due to a step down in SG&A growth to a low
single-digit increase. R&D continues to be expected to increase broadly in line with sales to support growth of the
pipeline.
Core Earnings per share is now expected to increase between 8 to 10 per cent at CER, reflecting higher operating
profit and more favourable net finance costs. Expectations for non-controlling interests remain unchanged relative to
2023, and GSK continues to anticipate an increase in the Core effective tax rate to around 17% following
implementation of a global minimum corporate income tax rate aligned with the Organisation for Economic CoOperation and Development ‘Pillar 2’ initiative.
2021-26 and 2031 Outlooks
In January 2024 GSK set out improved outlooks for the period 2021-2026 and for 2031. Please see 2023 Full year and fourth quarter results on gsk.com

Additional commentary
Dividend policy
The Dividend policy and the expected pay-out ratio remain unchanged. Consistent with this, and reflecting strong
business performance during the quarter, GSK expects to declare a dividend for Q1 2024 of 15p per share and for the
full year 2024 60p.
COVID-19 solutions
For the full year 2024, GSK does not anticipate any further COVID-19 pandemic-related sales or operating profit.
Consequently, and in comparison to 2023, it is anticipated that the full year growth in sales and Core operating profit
will be adversely impacted by one and two percentage points, respectively.
Exchange rates
If exchange rates were to hold at the closing rates on 31 March 2024 ($ 1.26/£1, € 1.17/£1 and Yen 191/£1) for the
rest of 2024, the estimated impact on 2024 Sterling turnover growth for GSK would be -3% and if exchange gains or
losses were recognised at the same level as in 2023, the estimated impact on 2024 Sterling Core Operating Profit
growth for GSK would be -5%.
Results presentation
A conference call and webcast for investors and analysts of the quarterly results will be hosted by Emma Walmsley,
CEO, at 12 noon BST (US EST at 7am) on 1 May 2024. Presentation materials will be published on www.gsk.com
prior to the webcast and a transcript of the webcast will be published subsequently.
Notwithstanding the inclusion of weblinks, information available on the company’s website, or from non GSK sources,
is not incorporated by reference into this Results Announcement.

see & read more on
https://www.gsk.com/media/11099/q1-2024-results-announcement.pdf



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